Monday,Sep 8 2008, 04:47:55 PM(Last updated: Monday,Sep 8 2008, 05:03:34 PM)
Is the situation retrievable to the prior,, August 2008?
Russians are systematically forwarding their presence in the neighboring " Near Zones". The promise given to president Sarkozy was not and will not be fulfilled , as the French President had in mind. Any Russian withdrawal behind the lines and borders of the Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia is out of question now that the international community has adopted this assault as a de facto topic.
The problem with the Europeans are numerous. Many of them are in deep commercial and energy ties with Russians. Germany is studying the pipeline under the Baltic sea. France has accurately come to the conclusion that without a kind of harmony with the Russians , it cant reach it goals to play the role of a the second military power in the Western World. After all it was the interruption of the Soviet-Western cold war permits them or any other economic power of the Europe , to convert itself from an economic power to a political player.
We should not forget that again it was the cold war that pushed the great power like Germany back into its economic industrial shell. After the World war two Germany had a dual liablity to burden the Hitler's demons and the crush that this demon brought about for the German people. In addtion , it was its incapability to reach out to the political role it might have been playes to influence the world politically ,, in accordance with its economic and Industrual capabilities.
This opportunity is there now , just because of the Soviet withdrawal from its seat as the equal super power. It is not at all incidental that Vladimir Putin called the dissolution of the Soviet , once as a catastrophic fact for Russian people. As the influence of Russia diminishes from the Central Europe , the European potential powers can play their role to gain either influence in the world politics , or to affect the international crises.
That is why the Russian withdrawal is a crucial fact for the political survivals of the European Union. On the other hand the Russians still insist upon a sort of recognition that would give them opportunity to gain back their buffer zones. They believe now that they established two such for their guaranties out of the Western Powers ambitions to advance towards the East, to simply respect this giant country's strategical borders. Southern Ossetia and Abkhzia have been the first victims for this unblessed complexity of the understandings of the Russian role after the dissolution of the Soviet in 1990. The complexity that certain European countries have been resposible to create it for the Russian New Class Rulers.
The fact remains that Russian are sharing now the same values with the superficial capitalism that they wont burn all the bridges behind themselves. However the limit zones to the Russian Imperial advancement as the heritages of the Historical glory is very hard to draw for the new rulers. Any economic prosperity should be accompanying the Russian historical glory to be able to rule over the mass -nationalism of the ordinary people and the army.
The situation now is much more complicated and dangerous from one point of view that the "Russian Pride" is badly damaged. The economic prosperity in this country covers only a few percent of this giant country. Unlike Germany after the war , the diameter of the welfare does not look very bright either , Germany was totally devastated after American occupying this country , but self generating mechanism in Germany could not be repeated in any other country specially Russia. Russians are not that much amused by the heavy industries simply because heavy industries belonged to the states, the only joy for Russians is consuming the products that mostly are manufactured in the West. They have either no intention or long run facilities to work for their welfare.
However they have not forgotten that they are great fighters. Both Napoleon and Hitler lost their army in Russian Winters. They are proud to be taken as a proud nation. Their pride was hurt by NATO's marching into their buffer zone. They could not believe in Kosovo's independence. Treaties with Poland and Check republics were hard to digest. Russian Generals have probably whispered in Medvetev's technocratic ears.
All these make any retrieval to the prior of August 2008 very improbable. Russians will not only remain in stress in Balkan and Caucasus , but they will try to out maneuver the Western struggles with the Muslim fundamentalists in the Eastern front . Any negotiation in Iranian Atomic ambitions will be almost impossible to drive , even in the turtle pace that it used to be going on by far and large. Their probable military bilateral treaty with the Iranians that reminds us of the like in 1921,, totally in favor of the military marching of the forces of the newly established revolutionary army, will be one of the impositions that they will enjoy against the too much pressured Iranians by the effects of the Economic sanctions. Israel not even will be convinced but even to will be forced to revise its military bullies towards Iran and the other Arab neighbors. An offense by the Russian military to sign new bilateral treatments with any of the Arab countries, specially Syria is not very mush out of sight. This might change the maps of Israeli Palestinian peace process very drastically.
In short Russia , will not only share the wealth and welfare but the political and military influence that it lost after 1990s. The question is ,, here , is this repeating of the history is possible and whether the Western world can afford it. That is why almost everyone knows in Washington, Berlin, Paris , Rome and Scandinavian countries that the rules of the new games will not permit them to divide. Even Chinese might be interested to join the others because they know if the gray Bear wakes up that would be very hard if not impossible at all to put it back to sleep again.
cyrusvadani@msn.com
